Oscar Predictions: ‘A Star Is Born,’ ‘Mary Poppins Returns’ Could Be Music to the Academy’s Ears

By Kristopher Tapley

LOS ANGELES (Variety.com) – So far the film awards season has largely been shaped by box office dollars from the moviegoing public and assessments from committees of critics, journalists and other professionals. The actual industry has only just begun to weigh in, starting with last week’s Annie Awards nominations announcement.

The Screen Actors Guild will add its collective voice Wednesday with a list of performance nominations, and next week, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will narrow the field in nine categories with a bundle of shortlists. After the new year, other guilds and organizations representing various disciplines will join the party. But before that whirlwind takes hold, it’s high time for a stab at predicting the nominees in the Academy’s 21 feature film categories.

At the moment — and remember, all of this is fluid — In Contention has music-heavy studio releases “A Star Is Born” (Warner Bros., 10 predicted nominations) and “Mary Poppins Returns” (Disney, nine) leading the way as Hollywood roars back this season with popular filmmaking. That’s quite a note in a year that nearly birthed a new Oscar geared toward wide-release pictures. Universal’s “First Man” and Disney’s “Black Panther” are also expected to have strong showings, with seven predicted mentions apiece.

That said, the indies look to be well-represented. We have Netflix’s “Roma” earmarked for eight mentions, Fox Searchlight’s “The Favourite” for seven and Annapurna’s “If Beale Street Could Talk” for six.

Have a look at what else we’re thinking below, with scattered pleas for consideration outside the box throughout. This list will be updated throughout the season until final predictions are set in stone in a few weeks.

Nominees will be announced on Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2019.

Best Picture

• “BlacKkKlansman”
  Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Shaun Redick, Jordan Peele, Spike Lee
• “Black Panther”
  Kevin Feige
• “The Favourite”
  Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Yorgos Lanthimos, Lee Magiday
• “First Man”
  Wyck Godfrey, Marty Bowen, Isaac Klausner, Damien Chazelle
• “Green Book”
  Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga
• “If Beale Street Could Talk”
  Adele Romanski, Sara Murphy, Barry Jenkins, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner
• “Mary Poppins Returns”
  John DeLuca, Rob Marshall, Marc Platt
• “Roma”
  Nicolás Celis, Alfonso Cuarón, Gabriela Rodriguez
• “A Star Is Born”
  Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper, Lynette Howell Taylor
• “Vice”
  Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Will Ferrell, Adam McKay, Kevin Messick

For Your Consideration: 
“Minding the Gap”

Directing

• “BlacKkKlansman” Spike Lee
• “Cold War” Pawel Pawlikowski
• “Roma” Alfonso Cuarón
• “A Star Is Born” Bradley Cooper
• “Vice” Adam McKay

For Your Consideration: 
Lynne Ramsay, “You Were Never Really Here”

Actor in a Leading Role

• Christian Bale “Vice”
• Bradley Cooper “A Star Is Born”
• Ethan Hawke “First Reformed”
• Rami Malek “Bohemian Rhapsody”
• Viggo Mortensen “Green Book”

For Your Consideration: 
Ben Dickey, “Blaze”

Actress in a Leading Role

• Emily Blunt “Mary Poppins Returns”
• Glenn Close “The Wife”
• Olivia Colman “The Favourite”
• Lady Gaga “A Star Is Born”
• Melissa McCarthy “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

For Your Consideration:
 Toni Collette, “Hereditary”

Actor in a Supporting Role

• Mahershala Ali “Green Book”
• Timothée Chalamet “Beautiful Boy”
• Adam Driver “BlacKkKlansman”
• Sam Elliott “A Star Is Born”
• Richard E. Grant “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

For Your Consideration: Brian Tyree Henry, “If Beale Street Could Talk”

Actress in a Supporting Role

• Amy Adams “Vice”
• Regina King “If Beale Street Could Talk”
• Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie “Leave No Trace”
• Emma Stone “The Favourite”
• Rachel Weisz “The Favourite”

For Your Consideration: Elizabeth Debicki, “Widows”

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

• “BlacKkKlansman” Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee
• “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
• “If Beale Street Could Talk” Barry Jenkins
• “Leave No Trace” Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini
• “A Star Is Born” Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters

For Your Consideration: “Sicario: Day of the Soldado”

Writing (Original Screenplay)

• “Eighth Grade” Bo Burnham
• “The Favourite” Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
• “First Reformed” Paul Schrader
• “Green Book” Nick Vallelonga & Brian Currie & Peter Farrelly
• “Roma” Alfonso Cuarón

For Your Consideration: “Blindspotting”

Cinematography

• “Cold War” Lukasz Zal
• “First Man” Linus Sandgren
• “If Beale Street Could Talk” James Laxton
• “Roma” Alfonso Cuarón
• “A Star Is Born” Matthew Libatique

For Your Consideration: 
“Mission: Impossible – Fallout”

Costume Design

• “Black Panther” Ruth E. Carter
• “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald” Colleen Atwood
• “The Favourite” Sandy Powell
• “Mary Poppins Returns” Sandy Powell
• “Mary Queen of Scots” Alexandra Byrne

For Your Consideration: 
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”

Film Editing

• “First Man” Tom Cross
• “Mary Poppins Returns” Wyatt Smith
• “A Star Is Born” Jay Cassidy
• “Vice” Hank Corwin
• “Widows” Joe Walker

For Your Consideration: “The Other Side of the Wind”

Makeup and Hairstyling

• “Black Panther” Joel Harlow, Camille Friend and Ken Diaz
• “Border” (TBD)
• “Suspiria” Mark Coulier, Fernanda Perez and Manolo Garcia

For Your Consideration: 
“Vox Lux”

Music (Original Score)

• “Black Panther” Ludwig Göransson
• “First Man” Justin Hurwitz
• “If Beale Street Could Talk” Nicholas Britell
• “Isle of Dogs” Alexandre Desplat
• “Mary Poppins Returns” Marc Shaiman

For Your Consideration: “Gemini”

Music (Original Song)

• “All the Stars” from “Black Panther”
  Kendrick Lamar, Anthony Tiffith, Mark Spears, Solana Rowe and Al Schuckburgh
• “Girl in the Movies” from “Dumplin’”
  Dolly Parton and Linda Perry
• “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from “Mary Poppins Returns”
  Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman
• “I’ll Fight” from “RBG”
  Diane Warren
• “Shallow” from “A Star Is Born”
  Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt

For Your Consideration: “Hearts Beat Loud” from “Hearts Beat Loud”

Production Design

• “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald” Stuart Craig and Anna Pinnock
• “The Favourite” Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton
• “If Beale Street Could Talk” Mark Friedberg and Kris Moran
• “Mary Poppins Returns” John Myhre and Gordon Sim
• “Roma” Eugenio Caballero and Bárbara Enrı́quez

For Your Consideration: “Isle of Dogs”

Sound Editing

• “Black Panther” Benjamin A. Burtt and Steve Boeddeker
• “First Man” Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan
• “A Quiet Place” Ethan Van Der Ryn and Erik Aadahl
• “Ready Player One” Gary Rydstrom and Richard Hymns
• “Roma” Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay

For Your Consideration: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”

Sound Mixing

• “First Man”
  Mary H. Ellis, Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and Ai-Ling Lee
• “Mary Poppins Returns”
  Simon Hayes, Mike Prestwood Smith and Michael Keller
• “Ready Player One”
  Chris Munro, Andy Nelson and Gary Rydstrom
• “Roma”
  José Antonio Garcia, Skip Lievsay and Craig Henighan
• “A Star Is Born”
  Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupanicic and Jason Ruder

For Your Consideration: “The Front Runner”

Visual Effects

• “Avengers: Infinity War”
  Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick
• “Black Panther”
  Geoffrey Baumann, Jesse James Chisholm, Craig Hammack and Dan Sudick
• “First Man”
  Paul Lambert, J.D. Schwalm, Ian Hunter and Tristan Myles
• “Mary Poppins Returns”
  Matt Johnson, Steve Warner, Jim Capobianco and Kyle McCulloch
• “Ready Player One”
  Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Mattew E. Butler and David Shirk

For Your Consideration: “Ant-Man and the Wasp”

Animated Feature Film

• “Early Man”
  Nick Park, Richard Beek, Peter Lord, Carla Shelley and David Sproxton
• “Incredibles 2”
  Brad Bird, John Walker and Nicole Paradis Grindle
• “Isle of Dogs”
  Wes Anderson, Steven Rales and Scott Rudin
• “Ralph Breaks the Internet”
  Phil Johnston, Rich Moore and Clark Spencer
• “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
  Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Avi Arad, Amy Pascal, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Christina Steinberg

For Your Consideration: “Ruben Brandt, Collector”

Foreign Language Film

• “Never Look Away” Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck (Germany)
• “Shoplifters” Hirokazu Kore-eda (Japan)
• “Roma” Alfonso Cuarón (Mexico)
• “Cold War” Pawel Pawlikowski (Poland)
• “Border” Ali Abbasi (Sweden)

For Your Consideration: “The Guilty” (Denmark)

Documentary (Feature)

• “Free Solo”
  Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Shannon Dill and Evan Hayes
• “Minding the Gap”
  Bing Liu and Diane Moy Quon
• “RBG”
  Julie Cohen and Betsy West
• “Three Identical Strangers”
  Tim Wardle, Grace Hughes-Hallett and Becky Read
• “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?”
  Morgan Neville, Caryn Capotosto and Nicholas Ma